2023 has been a strange year. It's been a year with a fairly strong Global Stock Market and a lot of good economic news, but with what seems like half the population feeling like the economy is bad! There's no doubt that high prices are part of this. Those hit people right in the wallet, so costs are likely playing a part in the pessimism out there. As you all know, I like looking at a lot of data and analyzing it. What I'm seeing, is a pretty healthy economy, especially in the world's largest one, the United States. There's no doubt that the US has gone through a lot over the last four years. Between the Pandemic, the War in Ukraine, and significant Inflation, these have not been easy times. All that being said, we just keep getting better and better news on the economic front.
The US Inflation Rate is now down to 2.6% and their economy expanded by 2.4% in the second quarter of this year1. These numbers are much better than what was expected and show that so far, the country is not in recession. You may recall that last year, the US did have a couple of quarters of negative growth, but that the National Bureau of Economic Research saw too many job gains to declare a recession in 20222. It was almost assured that things would slow down in 2022, but that never happened. Surely by the first half of 2023 we'd be in recession, right? Nope. Didn't happen. You'll have read me say in past newsletters that a recession will come; It's inevitable. At this time though, we've seen a lot of good news out there. Positive gains on the Stock Market since September of last year3, Inflation cooling, and even some Wage Growth4. Things are looking up! This is all important news to us here in Canada as the US is such a big trading partner. If the US is chugging along, it's typically good news for us.
We've worked through most of the summer with a couple days off here and there. Patrycja was away in Poland so I was covering for her while she was visiting family overseas. We do plan to be out of the office this August. We'll take some time off between Aug. 4th and Aug. 13th. We are hoping to spend a chunk of that time up at the lake with the kids. I'll be available if you need me but won't be booking appointments in that time. I figure I should make sure to get some quality time in with the girls as the summer always flies by. We hope you're all having a great summer and getting time in with your loved ones.
Stay positive and have a wonderful August!!
Bryce Borden
1CNBC: - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/27/gdp-q2-2023-.html
2The Conference Board: - https://www.conference-board.org/blog/global-economy/GDP-reaction-Q2-2022#:~:text=US%20Real%20Gross%20Domestic%20Product,rate%20seen%20in%20Q1%202022
3Yahoo! Finance: - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/world-indices/
1The Financial Times: - https://www.ft.com/content/f32d4927-a182-4d7c-bf2d-dd915ef846b0